| Reported: 22 June 2025 | |
| Location: Middle East Region | |
Incident Details
On 22 June 2025, it has been widely reported that the US has conducted missile strikes on three nuclear sites in Iran. Further reporting suggests that the nuclear sites at Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan, have been, according to President Trump, destroyed. President Trump has also stated that now is the time for negotiation but has hinted that further attacks are possible. The UN International Atomic Energy Agency has reported no increase in off-site radiation levels at this time https://x.com/iaeaorg/status/1936650574939685121.
Comment. The US attacks on Iran’s strategic nuclear sites occurs 15 days after the Israel-Iran conflict commenced. With the limited conflict approaching a stalemate, the US providing a two-week ultimation for peace talks, and Iran stating that there will be no negotiation while hostilities continue, US intervention was inevitable. Iran has received lukewarm support regionally, even its traditional allies are not comfortable with a nuclear armed Iran.
Assessment. Iran has three options: 1. Do nothing and negotiate; 2. Retaliate immediately; 3. Retaliate at a time of its choosing surreptitiously; or 4. a mix of all 3. A mix of all three is likely. Without ME, Russian, and Chinese support, Iran does not want to draw the US in further. It will likely negotiate a deal which would also see the lifting of sanctions which can be used by the regime as a positive. It will likely state that the sites were empty too, while focussing their immediate response on Israel to save face. Iran has a long history of covert attacks in locations their adversaries least expect sometimes long after the triggering event. A combination of these assessments above is most likely.
Threat update:
Maritime. US operated/owned/affiliated vessels are at a higher risk in both the Arabian Gulf and the Red Sea. The threat of US vessels being attacked, boarded, or seized by the IRGCN in the Strait of Hormuz is HIGH. Electronic interference affecting all vessels in the Arabian Gulf (inc. the SoH) and the Red Sea remains HIGH. Proximity to USN vessels presents a collateral damage risk. We advise shipping to be vigilant while transiting the area, comply with the guidance given in BMP-Maritime-Security-2025-.pdf
Arabian Gulf – Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait (High), Qatar (Moderate), Levant-Israel and Lebanon (Very High), Iraq (Very High).
Advice:
- Avoid travel to the Levant or Iraq
- Avoid military installations (particularly US) across the Region
- Review [hardened] locations you can take cover within/under should a missile or drone attack or warning be sounded.
- Keep up to date with National warnings and advice and your relevant Embassy travel advice
