| Date Reported: 19 January 2025 | |
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Location: Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden |
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Incident Details
On January 19, 2025, phase one of a ceasefire commenced, which potentially ends the 15-month conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. In response, the Yemen Houthis stated that they would cease operations against what it called ‘other vessels’ in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden that are not Israeli owned or Israeli-flagged. But added that the group will only stop attacking Israeli-linked ships when all three phases of the Gaza ceasefire deal are completed.
Comment. In support of Palestinians in Gaza, the Iran-sponsored Houthis have attacked 111 vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden since 2023, which they believe had an affiliation with Israel. This has resulted in two ships being sunk and four sailors killed. To avoid potential incidents, there has been an estimated 40% reduction in commercial vessels transiting the Red Sea route since the beginning of 2024. Approximately 30% more commercial vessels now route via the Cape of Good Hope than in 2023, significantly increasing transit times, fuel costs, and environmental impact. The Houthis territory is strategically sited along the Red Sea, a vital maritime corridor through which around 15% of all global trade passes, which makes the group a strategic ally of Iran.
Assessment. The Houthis decision to end attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea reduces the immediate risk to non-Israeli shipping and could stabilise this critical maritime trade route. However, the three-phase, conditional nature of the ceasefire makes it unlikely that this announcement will lead to an immediate return to pre-conflict numbers of Red Sea transits by commercial shipping. Insurance premiums will likely stay at current levels until it is clear a lasting ceasefire is established and the Houthi threat has ended. However, for now, any further Israeli action against a perceived breach of the ceasefire agreement will possibly invoke a military response by the Houthis. With President Trump in office, it remains to be seen if this has a positive effect in the region as Trump has signalled he will respond to Iranian/Houthi attacks on American interests in the area. The swiftness of the reaction by the Houthis to the ceasefire announcement may be an indication of the impact recent attacks on Houthi Infrastructure by Israel, the US, and the UK have had on the country’s resources. For more information regarding the current situation talk to us at Contact Us – Neptune P2P Group
