The ceasefire is only “verbal” and the Houthis are maintaining their arsenal to resume attacks “whenever they want”, according to experts.
The Houthis’ truce in the Red Sea against commercial shipping, announced last Tuesday with great fanfare by President Donald Trump from the White House, does not convince shipowners, who will continue to detour through the Cape of Good Hope, or maritime security and intelligence companies. In the presentation of the first quarter results, Vincent Clerc, the CEO of Maersk, the world’s second largest liner owner, said that the Houthis’ truce “does not offer the conditions for redeploying” ships through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
“The agreement with the Houthis does not offer the conditions for redeployment”
Vincent Clerc CEO of Maersk
The rest of the large container shipping companies, according to The Wall Street Journal, are also not in the process of sailing in the Gulf of Aden again. The terms of the agreement between Washington and Yemen’s Iranian-sponsored insurgents are very confusing. “Conditions remain ambiguous. The ceasefire between the Houthis and the US is a verbal understanding and not a formal pact,” says the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). In the opinion of the Washington-based think tank, the Houthis “maintain their military capability” and can resume attacks on merchant ships “whenever they want”.
n a statement, the commodity data house Kpler says that the shipping industry will consider the Houthis a threat until they are disarmed or prevented from attacking ships. In fact, on Wednesday, May 7, after the ceasefire announced by Trump came into force, the Houthis launched three drones at Eilat airport in southern Israel and at a military target in Tel Aviv-Jaffa. The country’s Defense Forces (IDF) intercepted one of these drones, according to the ISW. The insurgents had already warned that the compromise reached with Washington did not include Israel “until the aggression against Gaza stops and the blockade on its residents is lifted, allowing the entry of food, medicine and fuel”.
NO OFFICIAL CONFIRMATION OF THE CESSATION OF HOUTHI AGGRESSION AGAINST MERCHANT TRADERS
For his part, in response to questions from El Mercantil, Christopher Long, Director of Intelligence at Neptune P2P Group, a maritime security company, assures that “the Houthis have not officially declared that they will cease attacks on non-Israeli commercial vessels; the only indication that this is the case is what President Trump claimed.” “Even if the Houthis were to make an official announcement, I don’t think there will be an immediate return to the Red Sea transit figures prior to November 2023. The largest and most reputable shipping companies will remain cautious and wait to see if the Houthi ceasefire against commercial vessels holds,” adds Long, who is also a former British naval officer.
“The largest and most reputable shipping companies will remain cautious and wait”
Christopher Long, Director of Intelligence at Neptune P2P Group
After his return to the White House, Trump ordered the Pentagon to intensify the bombing campaign in Yemen for almost two months, with the aim of stopping the insurgents’ attacks on merchant ships as they pass through Bab el-Mandeb, one of the world’s most important waterways through the Suez Canal. Since the war in the Middle East began in October 2023, traffic through the Red Sea has fallen by 60%, as shipowners have been forced to take a detour through Good Hope to avoid offensives by Yemen’s Shiite armed group, which controls much of the country, in support of Hamas.
HOUTHIS WILL “RESUME ATTACKS ON SHIPPING IN THE FUTURE”
In 2025, coinciding with the entry into force of the then frustrated ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis have not fired on any merchant ships again. “The truce between Israel and Hamas announced in February also raised tentative hopes that container shipping in the Red Sea would resume. Shipping companies need long-term guarantees about the safety of their crew and vessels, not to mention their customers’ cargo. Perhaps even more importantly, insurance companies also need guarantees,” stresses Xeneta’s chief analyst, Peter Sand.
“We also know that the Houthi militia will continue to attack some merchant ships, as they have made it very clear that the agreement is with the US and does not include Israel,” adds the head of the Norwegian maritime transport information platform.
Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta
The ISW goes even further than Sand. “The Houthis are likely to take advantage of the ceasefire with the US to reorganise themselves while continuing to attack Israel. Attacks on international shipping will almost certainly resume in the future,” the think tank says.
CNN, citing a US official, reported that the air campaign against Houthi sites in Yemen, such as the capital Sanaa and the oil port of Ras Isa, had had “limited effects”. Now, in a show of force, the armed organization has decided to attack Israeli airports instead of merchant missiles of the Jewish state, which requires more sophisticated military equipment, such as “medium-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and long-range drones,” according to the ISW.
SUMMARY OF INCIDENTS FROM NOVEMBER 19, 2023 TO DECEMBER 2, 2024
On the contrary, aggressions against commercial shipping require “shorter-range drones and anti-ship ballistic and cruise missiles.” Regardless of how the US air offensive has affected their military capabilities, “the Houthis can replenish their arsenal [to fire on commercial ships] through a combination of shipments from Iran and domestic production, using goods purchased on the international market,” ISW notes.
THE RETURN OF CONTAINER SHIPS TO THE RED SEA WOULD COLLAPSE FREIGHT RATES
Finally, after the announcement of the ceasefire, the possible return of container ships to the Red Sea could lead to “a global collapse” of sea freight. “The return of vessels to the region would flood the market with capacity, which would inevitably lead to the collapse of rates. If there is also a continued slowdown in imports in the US due to tariffs, the collapse will be even harsher and more dramatic,” according to Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta. Since the war in the Middle East began at the end of 2023, the result of the insurgents’ aggressions against shipping in the Indian Ocean has been six dead, the capture of the car carrier ‘Galaxy Leader’ and the kidnapping of its 22 crew members – released in January this year – multiple seriously injured and several ships sunk. the case of the bulk carrier ‘Tutor’ (2022) and ‘the cargo ship ‘Verbena’ (2008).
Published: 14th May 2025
Publication: Shipowners will not return to the Red Sea despite the truce announced by Trump
