Security Update – The Islamic State in Africa

Incident Details

In late November it was reported that Malagasy and Ivorian authorities with the assistance of the American and French intelligence services, dismantled a network of Islamic State (IS) jihadists that were facilitating the movement of militants from the Middle East to Europe. Eight Syrians and Iraqis were arrested during the raid. The group in Côte d’Ivoire were also suspected of plotting to attack the 2024 Paris Olympics.

Fig 1. IS support to local Insurgencies in Africa (2024)

Comment. Since losing most of its territory in Iraq and Syria in 2019, IS has regrouped and is actively pursuing recruitment in Africa. Multiple factions of IS are currently operating across the continent including West Africa (ISWAP), Central Africa (ISCAP), the Greater Sahara (ISGS), Somalia (ISSP), Libya (ISL), Mozambique (ISM), and Egypt/Sinai (ISSP). IS and its affiliates have engaged in insurgent related conflicts across Africa; the Sahel and the Lake Chad Basin being current hot spots. A September 2024 report by the US military found that IS have been leveraging their successes in Africa as a means of furthering recruitment for attacks within Europe. Attempts by local governments to dismantle IS groups have failed even with the assistance of European and US partners and organisations such as Russia’s Wagner Group. It was a display of IS capability and reach when IS-KP, explicitly recruited Tajik nationals, attacked the Moscow concert hall which claimed the lives of 145 people.

Assessment. Islamic State recruitment flourishes in poverty-stricken areas where disenfranchisement is commonplace. Targeting young people who have faced extreme difficulties in their lives, whether from poverty or oppressive governments, IS offers the opportunity for them to fight for a group where they feel empowered. IS appeals to individuals with troubled pasts, offering them a path to religious and personal redemption through participation in their “cause”.  With c.65% of the sub-Saharan population under the age of 25 and generally having poor standards of living, the percentage of people who are likely to be radicalised is high. With recruitment being a key priority, committing large-scale terror attacks is highly regarded as a potent recruitment mechanism due to the widescale media attention it generates. As attempts grow to dismantle IS factions, increased attacks will likely be aimed at furthering recruitment efforts as well as and in support of their broader geopolitical ambitions. Ensuring a valid travel risk management plan is vital if you or your business operates in Africa due to the risk posed by IS and wider in Africa. Large scale terror attacks can occur anywhere and without warning. Examples are the 2015 Bardo Museum and Sousse Beach massacres in Tunisia and the 2016 Grand-Bassam Resort attack in Côte d’Ivoire – each highlight the importance of robust travel risk management to safeguard employees and operations in high-risk regions.