It seems very likely that Somali pirates will soon emerge from their relative downtime, and experts state that it will be no surprise to see piracy return to the Gulf of Aden.
According to security analysts the building blocks of piracy are still very much in place ‚Äì for all the activities of navies, lawyers and armed guards, the pirate infrastructure is largely intact. The latest reports claim the Somali pirates will be able to ‚Äúmobilise for new attacks very quickly‚Äù once they believe the conditions for success are right, or when they are compelled to earn more money.
While many of the bigger piracy players may have stepped back a little, it seems clear there remain a number of people who will continue to carry out attacks. Once the skiffs begin to pick up targets and successfully hijack vessels, then the long-established pirate investors, leaders and negotiators are likely to get involved again as they eye more profit.
Analysts believe the Somali pirates did not change their tactics or way of conducting ‚Äòbusiness‚Äô over the last few years, because it was working and provided them with a suitable return. Now things are evolving, it is likely their approach will be slightly different too. The experts state that, ‚Äúthey will innovate new ways of getting ships or foreign nationals‚Äù.¬† Alas we don‚Äôt know exactly what form the innovations will take yet, but it seems many believe the coming year will clearly show the spirit, intention and desire of the Somali pirates is far from broken, and their capacity is little diminished.
The armed guards and military presence may be making them a tad more selective, but they are seemingly still out there ready to strike when the conditions are right. The virus of Somali piracy is not eradicated, it is perhaps simply dormant and unless we keep taking the tablets this tropical disease could awake once again.