BY preetamkaushik
The recent release of the Tom Hanks starrer Captain Phillips,was a timely reminder about the plague of piracy off the Horn of Africa that has plagued maritime trade in a headline-making way in the last few years, but seems to have receded from our minds of late.
Slim Pickings
According to figures made public by the UN, the first nine months of 2013 have seen only 17 pirate attacks compared to 99 in the same period in 2012. An increase in armed guards on merchant vessels (around 60% of ships) and robust policing of waters by international navies has had the desired effect.
However, 71 crewmembers are still held hostage from previous hijackings, and an estimated $413 million in ransom has been paid to pirates between 2005 and 2012. The pirates who did all the dirty work are estimated to have received only 2.5% of this amount, with the network of criminal gangs and financiers that control these foot soldiers keeping the rest.
Experts caution though that the world must not let down their guard against piracy just yet—the pirates could have made a tactical withdrawal to refashion tactics, and they may pop-up in less policed waters off the coast of Western Africa.
Emerging Threat
If anything, the situation in Somalia has become even more volatile and complex, with the rise of terrorist group Al-Shabab. Since the horrific attack on the Westgate Mall in Nairobi, US special forces have also entered the picture. The lawlessness on the ground in Somalia has always had a direct bearing on the potential for mischief on the high seas adjacent to the country.
Opinions differ on whether the rise of Al Shabab has caused a decline in piracy or it has paved the way for insidious cooperation between two dangerous forces. In a worst case scenario for the maritime trade, Al Shabab may even try and take control of all the pirate gangs, even if fighting off their criminal bosses may cause a short-term disruption to the piracy efforts.
The dangers of leaving a failed state to its own devices are well known—the fertile breeding ground of Afghanistan and September 11 being a painful reminder. Unfortunately, previous UN efforts to stabilize Somalia in the 1990s have ended in spectacular failure.
The world waits with bated breath if the lull in piracy presages a huge storm.
preetamkaushik is based in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India, and is an Anchor for Allvoices.
Via: http://www.allvoices.com/
