Headlines: Regional tensions remained elevated despite an expected pause in hostilities during the state funeral of Ali Khamenei, with President Trump warning of renewed military action if negotiations fail. Israel intensified its deterrent messaging towards Iran and lobbed against enhanced Turkish defence capabilities. Maritime security concerns increased after a Qatari LNG tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile near the Strait of Hormuz amid reports of IRGC missile launches towards commercial shipping. The NATO Summit opened in Ankara with regional security and burden-sharing high on the agenda. Elsewhere, Israeli military operations continued in Gaza, Lebanon and the West Bank, France became the first Western nation to re-engage at head-of-state level with Syria’s new leadership despite a subsequent security incident in Damascus. OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production, and instability persisted in Pakistan following militant attacks and civil unrest.
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