The Triangle Formula for Remaking Somalia

Waxaad Akhrinaysaa Wali Waa

The drama of power struggle in Somalia is unfolding. Nowadays, the International Communities are giving support to the new Somali Government, headed by President Hassan of Hawiye tribe. Negotiations are going on between Somali Government and the mini states and factions in Somalia. The negotiations are brokered by UK, Turkey, Qatar, USA, and with the support of many other countries.

The International Communities are missing the facts about Somalia. There is a new development in the power struggle in Somalia. New alliances have been created. All Darood clans are coming together and making their own state and creating their territory. This new territory includes Kismayo region, Puntland and parts of Somaliland, and Ogaden. The Darood politicians are determined to take control of Somalia. Another Group of Somalia has an umbitious plan. Isaaq are Hawiye have a secret plan too. This latter group are already negotiating a plan behind the scenes and on the sides of the ongoing Somali Conferences. The plan of politically uniting Isaaq and Hawiye is not new but as old as the collapse of Siyad Barre.

The rest of the tribes in Somalia are not part of the processes of remaking Somalia. The International Communities are misled and fooled by the newly minted Somali Government which is run by Hawiye, Isaaq, and Darood. Some people believe that Al-Shabab’s main engine is fuelled by members of those dominant tribes in order to maintain their power and control of the country. The Somalia’s nightmare has just begun in an unprecedented fashion. An endless struggle and undoubtedly endless crises are in the offing. So far all previous negotiations in the peace processes have failed. The continuing recent negotiations are for sure would fail because of the selfish intentions of those who consider themselves superior to others.

Ken Menkhaus, professor at Davidson College and a specialist in the Horn of Africa once wrote in one of his papers in 2008 about Somalia the following:

“The world has grown numb to Somalia’s seemingly endless crises—18 years of state collapse, failed peace talks, violent lawlessness and warlordism, internal displacement and refugee flows, chronic underdevelopment, intermittent famine, piracy, regional proxy wars, and Islamic extremism. It would be easy to conclude that today’s disaster is merely a continuation of a long pattern of intractable problems there, and move on to the next story in the newspaper. So Somalia’s in flames again—what’s new? The answer is that much is new this time, and it would be a dangerous error of judgment to brush off Somalia’s current crisis as more of the same. It would be equally dangerous to call for the same tired formulas for U.N. peacekeeping, state-building, and counterterrorism operations that have achieved little since 1990. Seismic political, social, and security changes are occurring in the country, and none bode well for the people of Somalia or the international community.”

This insight into Somalia Politics is still valid. The same lawlessness and failed peace negotiations are still continuing. The new developments and alignments in Somalia are going to create the worst nightmares. Under the cover of negotiations about remaking Somalia, there are parallel negotiations going on at on the sides. The International communities are misled and not told about the new alliances in the power struggle going on in the country. A new Somalia order is in the process. Many tribes who are already marginalized and have no influence in the process will be unaccounted for in the new Somalia.

The International Community needs to understand the tribal system of Somali people and where every tribe is located. The International Community must know that they were ones who created Siyad Barre’s killing machine. The fact that Siayd Barre murdered hundreds of civilians, engaged systematic torture, imprisoned dissidents meant little to the USA Government, the International Monetary Fund or the World Bank – all of which continued the long tradition of US support for friendly dictators. It seems that tradition is now again unfolding. The International Community opened up the doors for wider support to the recently formed Government headed by President Hassan from Hawiye with the Foreign Minister from Isaaq and Prime Minister from Darood. These three people represent the triangle – Hawiye, Isaaq, and Darood. This triangle strategy is a sword to the rest of the population.

The battle for control for Somalia has just begun. The Hawiye and Isaaq have an old alliance and want to strength it in order to challenge Darood. Darood is regrouping itself too to form a powerful alliance against Isaaq and Hawiye. The International Community should be informed of this conspiracy and an inclusion policy should be sought.


Original Article