Last week, the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding: stop striking each other, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and begin 60 days of nuclear talks. Nine days later, Iran hit a Singapore-flagged cargo ship with a drone — and the U.S. responded with strikes on Iranian missile and radar sites.
The market reaction was immediate. Chris Long, intelligence director at Neptune P2P Group, who advises shippers navigating the strait, said the strike halted a fragile recovery in transit traffic: “A lot of ships have stopped going through today. The attack has made people halt crossing and take stock.”
The numbers tell the story — daily transits fell from 70 to 14 in just two days, according to Kpler.
For an industry that depends on predictability, a signed agreement isn’t the same as an operational guarantee. Confidence returns transit by transit, and it only takes one incident to reset the clock.
