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Weekly Intelligence Report 2nd – 9th February 2018

Indian Ocean HRA Overview

Continued reported incidents reflect that the HRA remains a threat in regards to piracy activity in the region. Recent efforts to improve the security environment will reduce the impact of Somali piracy, however, continuing deterioration of onshore conditions in Somalia such as famine, terrorist groups, a weak central government and poor governance of coastal areas continue to influence piracy in the region. Pirate financiers capitalise on the chaos offering opportunities to local people. Piracy groups onshore Somalia still bear the motivation to try and carry out attacks and still with capability to target merchant vessels. Increasingly, vessels in the HRA are subjected to incidents that appear to be co-ordinated small boat piracy approaches however they choose not to ultimately attack. These incidents are then difficult to classify as attempted piracy or simply as regional patterns of life in the area. However, as seen in recent months there have been numerous attacks and attempted boarding’s ranging from incidents in the Somali Basin, Gulf of Oman, Gulf of Aden and the Southern Red Sea. The increased presence of naval patrols and armed security on board vessels act as a deterrent to the threat of piracy, however those vessels transiting in the area without the presence of armed security remain a significant risk.

Reported Incidents HRA

No incidents to report (UKMTO)

Yemen Update

At present the civil war in Yemen shows no sign of ending, neither side in the war has gained enough power and momentum to reunite the country under a single government. Saudi led coalition airstrikes continue in the Taiz province, Hudaydah province and Sanaa. The current military offensive along Yemen’s western coast started early last year and are aimed at cutting major offshore smuggling routes and securing the strategic Bab Al Mandab Strait.

This Week

25 Ethiopian migrants missing off Yemen, forced into the sea: 25 Ethiopian migrants are missing off Yemen after being forced into the sea, the United Nations migration agency reported highlighting the dangers of a well-travelled route from the Horn of Africa to rich Gulf nations. It was reported that people in the last of four boats carrying migrants were forced to swim to shore as they approached Yemen’s Shabwa province from Somalia. No bodies have been found. About 600 Ethiopian migrants, men and women, were aboard the boats, an unusually large number of migrants to arrive off Shabwa at one time.

Saudi Arabia intercepts another missile launched from Yemen by the Houthi rebels: Saudi Arabia’s air force intercepted a ballistic missile launched by Houthi rebels in Yemen, the Kingdom’s military reported. Col. Turki Al-Maliki, a spokesman for the Saudi-led military coalition supporting the Yemeni government, told state media that the missile was launched from Yemen’s northern government of Sa’adah and targeted the city of Khamis Mushait, about 100 miles north of the Saudi-Yemen border.

Ongoing Threat of Violence/Terrorism at Sea off the Coast of Yemen

  • Yemen’s civil war has created an environment mirroring Somalia’s lawlessness. The ongoing conflict in Yemen demonstrates how poor security on land has led to violence spilling out into the maritime domain. Houthi rebels continue to control a large amount of Yemen’s red sea coastline.
  • In relation to coalition forces advancing towards the Red Sea port city of Hudaydah, currently under Houthi rebel control, increases the risk to shipping in the region. In the past Houthi rebels have repeatedly threatened to attack merchant vessels in the region should coalition forces attempt to re-take Hudaydah port. If coalition forces seized Hudaydah it could be argued this would be a turning point in the civil war as the Houthi rebels would lose their main source of finance through the port in which illegal arms are smuggled.
  • Unconfirmed reports surfaced on the 7th January 2018 stating that the Saudi coalition had destroyed at least one Houthi vessel near Hudaydah port after an alleged attack occurred against a Saudi oil tanker. The vessel was reported to be loaded with explosives and controlled remotely.
  • The threat of terrorism at sea off the coast of Yemen remains by rebel groups and terrorist organisations such as AQAP. Such is highlighted by attacks against the LNG Tanker Galacia Spirit in October 2016 and the MT Muskie a product tanker in May 2017. Both involved the use of explosive laden skiffs, as an attempt to cause major devastation in the critical international shipping passage of the Bab-el-Mandeb.
  • It remains a persistent threat that merchant vessels may be the subject of a miscalculated attack or as has been suggested recently, possibly threats of a calculated attack.

Somalia Update

The UN warned of a grim humanitarian outlook for 2018 in Somalia. Progress towards stability is impeded by extreme drought and hunger, al Shabaab’s continued violence and other enormous challenges. These challenges include pervasive corruption in politics and power-brokers willingness to use violence or threat of violence against opponents.

This Week

Merchant vessel washes up on Bosaso coast: A merchant vessel carrying 1,500 tons of shipment washed up on the shore near Bosaso after officials of Bosaso port refused to dock at the port, due to bad weather residents said.

Landmine attack kills at least two company employees near Somalia’s Mogadishu: At least two people employed by the Hormud Telecommunication Company were killed when a landmine, placed by unidentified militants, detonated near a vehicle in the Kilometre 13 area near Somalia’s capital Mogadishu. No group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack, but al-Shabaab has conducted similar attacks previously.

Mogadishu truck bomber sentenced to death: A Somali military court on Tuesday sentenced a man to death after finding him guilty of carrying out an October truck bombing that killed over 500 people, the deadliest attack in the nation’s history. Colonel Hassan Ali Shute found 23-year-old Hassan Adan Isaq guilty of heading the Shabaab terrorist cell behind the October 14 terror attack. He also sentenced a second man to life in prison in absentia for being a member of the Al-Qaeda aligned group and procuring the vehicle used in the attack, while a third was given three years in jail for allowing the truck to pass freely through a roadblock.

Al Shabaab

Al Shabaab has been increasingly active in Somalia in recent months. The militant group has been battling the Somali Federal Government (SFG) in an effort to govern Somalia. Since 2013, al Shabaab pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda attracting the United States to execute raids and airstrikes against the group. However increased US airstrikes have not enabled African Union Mission (AMISOM) and Somali security forces to gain enough momentum against the terrorist group, al Shabaab has not suffered any great loss of territory or significant casualties from the airstrikes. Al Shabaab continues to maintain strongholds in southern and central Somalia and continue to carry out attacks against military and civilian targets. Somalia is a country whereby tribal loyalties are stronger than national ties. The SFG and Somali forces lack legitimacy outside of Mogadishu. Further to this, al Shabaab further exemplifies the issue of famine, terrorism and corruption making the prospect of stability in Somalia in the near future bleak. Al Shabaab is likely to maintain its present operational tempo in 2018 and further expand its territory in central and southern Somalia.

Piracy

In 2017 between March and May, five vessels were hijacked in Somali waters, whilst this was reported by many to be a resurgence of Somali piracy, it can be assessed as more likely to be a result of a permissive environment during the inter-monsoon period allowing skiffs and PAGS to operate with ease. Until the deep rooted issue of piracy in Somalia are resolved, piracy will continue to be a threat. 2017 saw the worst drought Somalia has seen in 40 years, this coupled with the struggling government and extreme militant violence has brought 6.7 million people into crisis. Pirate financiers capitalise on the chaos offering opportunities to local people. Pirate groups are known to operate in the coastal regions of Puntland, namely Eyl and further south in the Galmudug region, namely Hobyo. It is needless to say, as the increased instability in Somalia continues, it will serve as a permissive environment for piracy operations with an ongoing threat to shipping in the region.

© Neptune P2P Group 2017