Back to the top

Weekly Intelligence Report 2nd – 9th August 2018

Indian Ocean HRA Overview

  • No incidents reported in the High Risk Area during the reporting period.

The tactical situation across the Indian Ocean High Risk Area (HRA) remains the same in terms of the threat of piracy and maritime crime. The reporting period (2 – 9 August) has no confirmed piracy incidents to report. Despite this, approaches in recent months by suspected pirate skiffs along with reports of pirate paraphernalia continue in areas such as the Bab-el-Mandeb strait.  Incidents in the maritime domain involving onshore violence has not only been reported in the Southern Red Sea off the coast of Yemen but also off the coast of southern Somalia. This in turn illustrates that the High Risk Area remains vulnerable to not only piracy but also violence on land spilling out into the maritime domain due to the persistent instability in the Horn of Africa and the Middle East. The current assessment is that piracy attacks will remain sporadic and at a low level along with rebel/terrorist groups continuing to conduct attacks in the region for the foreseeable future.

Adverse weather conditions continue to influence the Indian Ocean, piracy operations are therefore more likely to occur in more sheltered areas such as the Bab-el-Mandeb strait and Gulf of Aden where skiffs are able to operate with more ease. Reports have indicated that Somali pirates may use the monsoon as cover for attacks against merchant ships in areas such as the Gulf of Aden where weather conditions are not as severe.

Reported Incidents HRA

No incidents to report during the reporting period (UKMTO)

Yemen 

(Economist – Risk Intelligence)

Saudi Arabia resumes oil exports through the Red Sea

Saudi Arabia has confirmed that they have resumed oil shipments through the Bab-el-Mandeb strait. It has been reported that Saudi Arabia’s suspension of oil shipments in the region may have been partially attributed to attracting international attention to the ongoing offensive against Yemen’s Houthi movement. On the 25th July Saudi Arabia temporarily suspended oil shipments through the Bab-el-Mandeb strait after attacks on two Saudi vessels in the Red Sea by Houthi rebels.

Children killed in air strike on bus in rebel-held northern Yemen

The bus was travelling through Dahyan marked in the Saada province in rebel-held northern Yemen, 43 people are reported to have been killed with most victims under the age of 10 years old. Coalition forces stated that the air strike was legitimate and were responding to ballistic missile launches by the Houthi rebels which had targeted the southern Saudi city of Jizan. This action by the Saudi-led coalition will most likely exemplify the conflict in the region causing increased instability.

Somalia

Al Shabaab continue to be increasingly active in Somalia, maintaining strongholds in southern and central Somalia. The terrorist group continue to carry out attacks against military and civilian targets.

Somalia is a country whereby tribal loyalties are stronger than national ties which have hindered efforts to strengthen unity. Terrorist groups and clan divisions mean that the SFG and Somali forces lack legitimacy outside of Mogadishu. Further to this, al Shabaab further exemplifies the issue of famine, terrorism and corruption making the prospect of stability in Somalia in the near future bleak. Al Shabaab is likely to maintain its present operational tempo in 2018 which leaves huge challenges facing Mogadishu meaning international efforts to stabilise the country will continue for years to come.

Piracy Activity

Until the deep rooted issue of piracy in Somalia are resolved, piracy will continue to be a threat. In recent times Somalia has suffered some of the worst famines in 40 years, this coupled with the struggling government and extreme militant violence has brought millions of people into crisis. Pirate financiers capitalise on the chaos offering opportunities to local people. Somalia has the second-longest coastline in Africa which is largely unregulated. Pirate groups are known to operate in the coastal regions of Puntland namely Eyl and further south in Galmudug namely Hobyo. It is needless to say, as instability in Somalia continues, it will serve as a permissive environment for piracy operations serving as an ongoing threat to shipping in the region.

© Neptune P2P Group 2017