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Weekly Intelligence Report 16th – 23rd August 2018

Indian Ocean HRA Overview

  • No incidents reported in the High Risk Area during the reporting period.

The tactical situation across the Indian Ocean High Risk Area (HRA) remains the same in terms of the threat of piracy and maritime crime. The reporting period (9 – 16 August) has no confirmed piracy incidents to report. Despite this, approaches in recent months by suspected pirate skiffs along with reports of pirate paraphernalia continue in areas such as the Bab-el-Mandeb strait.  Incidents in the maritime domain involving onshore violence has not only been reported in the Southern Red Sea off the coast of Yemen but also off the coast of southern Somalia. This in turn illustrates that the High Risk Area remains vulnerable to not only piracy but also violence on land spilling out into the maritime domain due to the persistent instability in the Horn of Africa and the Middle East. The current assessment is that piracy attacks will remain sporadic and at a low level along with rebel/terrorist groups continuing to conduct attacks in the region for the foreseeable future.

Adverse weather conditions continue to influence the Indian Ocean, piracy operations are therefore more likely to occur in more sheltered areas such as the Bab-el-Mandeb strait and Gulf of Aden where skiffs are able to operate with more ease. Reports have indicated that Somali pirates may use the monsoon as cover for attacks against merchant ships in areas such as the Gulf of Aden where weather conditions are not as severe.

Reported Incidents HRA

No incidents to report during the reporting period (UKMTO)

Yemen 

(Economist – Risk Intelligence)

Yemeni fishermen killed off the coast of Hodeidah

The Saudi coalition continue to perform airstrikes on the western province of Hodeidah. It was reported this week that around 13 Yemeni fishermen were killed off the coast in an airstrike conducted by the Saudi coalition on Sunday 19th August. According to open source media reporting two fishing boats were targeted.

Saudi air defence intercept Houthi missile
It was reported this week that the Saudi Air Defence intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile targeting the southern city of Jizan in Saudi Arabia

Somalia

Al Shabaab continue to be increasingly active in Somalia, maintaining strongholds in southern and central Somalia. The terrorist group continue to carry out attacks against military and civilian targets.

Somalia is a country whereby tribal loyalties are stronger than national ties which have hindered efforts to strengthen unity. Terrorist groups and clan divisions mean that the SFG and Somali forces lack legitimacy outside of Mogadishu. Further to this, al Shabaab further exemplifies the issue of famine, terrorism and corruption making the prospect of stability in Somalia in the near future bleak. Al Shabaab is likely to maintain its present operational tempo in 2018 which leaves huge challenges facing Mogadishu meaning international efforts to stabilise the country will continue for years to come.

Piracy Activity

Until the deep rooted issue of piracy in Somalia are resolved, piracy will continue to be a threat. In recent times Somalia has suffered some of the worst famines in 40 years, this coupled with the struggling government and extreme militant violence has brought millions of people into crisis. Pirate financiers capitalise on the chaos offering opportunities to local people. Somalia has the second-longest coastline in Africa which is largely unregulated. Pirate groups are known to operate in the coastal regions of Puntland namely Eyl and further south in Galmudug namely Hobyo. It is needless to say, as instability in Somalia continues, it will serve as a permissive environment for piracy operations serving as an ongoing threat to shipping in the region.

© Neptune P2P Group 2017